Open Collections

Estimating event probabilities using zero failure data

International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability (12th : 2015 : Vancouver, B.C.)

In a rather well publicized June 2013 CBC broadcast, the safety of a specific series of Canadian onshore gas pipeline joints was declared “absolute” by one proponent, since, historically, no incidents or failures had ever been reported for that site. An opponent then argued that the face value of this risk could never be zero, but “very small”. The objective of the present paper is to review just how small, and at which confidence level, one can sensibly consider the actual incidence rate to be. A comparison of the most popular approaches and a comprehensive test for consistency, point to the superiority of the Bayesian estimator together with a non-central posterior probability interval.

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This collection contains the proceedings of ICASP12, the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering held in Vancouver, Canada on July 12-15, 2015. Abstracts were peer-reviewed and authors of accepted abstracts were invited to submit full papers. Also full papers were peer reviewed. The editor for this collection is Professor Terje Haukaas, Department of Civil Engineering, UBC Vancouver.

Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library

10.14288/1.0076053

Non UBC

Unreviewed

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/